My 2011 playbook...

Keeping up with tradition of most financial bloggers at the start of the new year with some picks and themes for the new year:

With the introduction of the iPad last year, Apple create created a whole new class of computing... stick with $AAPL... Android may overtake iOS in numbers this year but Apple makes a pile of cash and iPods and iPad and ATVs are never included in the numbers that AAPL bears give when talking Android market share. Plus, $GOOG gives Android away for free... watch 3rd party tab makers hedge their bets with WindowsMobile 7 tabs too as they fight it out to the bottom...Apple sold a ton of gear over Christmas and should run up into earnings... nobody is making an "Android killer" yet...

$RIMM isn't going anywhere... Blackberry users are loyal and their security is better than all the other smartphones out there today; while their new tablet, the Playbook, may still flop in terms compared with the iPad, they will sell a ton of them regardless of the battery problems... wait for major overall correction with $RIMM.. it's still also a takeover target if Windows tabs and phones flop.....though it is sitting at its 200SMA right now, under $50 is nicer... on the watchlist...

the return of AGs and Uranium stocks... Fertilizer plays and uranium plays will be big in 2011... For ferts: go with $POT, $AGU, and $MOS.. beware of profit taking early January as these have been on a tear the last few weeks... great entry points on the pullbacks.... stick with larger plays like $CCO and $DML for uranium...

commercial trucking... $CMI is a good safe bet for 2011.. they got a great balance sheet and with the US government focusing on fuel economy and higher emission standards for commercial trucks, Cummins is your best bet.

retail: $LULU.. never mess with women with money who want to look good... lululemon has been an institutional favourite last year and its PE is through the roof, but with its tiny float, it can only mean higher share price... get in on any pullbacks..and this should run nicely into earnings for Q4..the lulu stores were absolutely packed during the holiday season...

$ZAGG is a nice retail play for 2011 also...all those expensive "itoys" needs protection...

$MELI- the eBay of Latin America... they got home court advantage...

$MCP- molyCorp is a new rare Earths play... IPO last summer and is already up 200%...Rare earth metals are definitely in bubble territory but there's still a lot of momentum in the sector for 2011... especially with smartphones and mobile tablets taking off... Canadian rare earth plays: $REE $AVL $GWG

Oil will flirt with $100 a BBL in 2011... get in the bigger players on overall market correction.. $XOM $SU

Caution of a January correction.. the market indicators show overall markets are oversold and will pullback..great time to get in a lot of these not so cheap stocks...

Do your own DD... I do not recommend BUYING any of these stocks without doing your own DD first... these are stocks I currently own or am trading or will be acquiring in the short term future as of Jan 3, 2011... watch for any updates on my twitter feeds or facebook updates.

2010 has come and gone...

HELLOOOOO 2011...... Wow...I haven't posted anything since February of 2009 and it was just 3 little blurbs... and before that 2008.... so here goes...

Suddenly it's 1/1/11!! Since then we've been through the worse economic downturn since the Great Depression and the introduction of the iPad!! In Canada, oil companies went into panic mode and did some cutbacks but real estate values took a small dip but held onto their values nicely...

So as I download financial statements for the past year, I also reflect upon the past year and decade as I go into my 11th year of trading stocks online.. all in all not too awful bad...

2010 average earnings from job: even with an 8% total pkg increase, the bank acct didn't grow that much with the lack of OT & a lot extra time off this year... SIGH...

2011 welcomes EI ($786.76) and CPP ($2163.15) payments again.. and with extra time off for the Yuletide season this year, I can definitely say I spent more than I earned over the holidays.. YIKES!

But I did manage to top off and max out my RRSP and still pay off the monthly bills... But it could be a rough first few months of 2011...

2010 financials as of Dec 31st:

TSX +14%; DOW +11%... portfolio goal +9%;

ACTUAL portfolio +34% WooHoo!

Not the +110% seen last year but sure beats the 2 consecutive years (2007 & 2008) of losses of -25% per year which observed my portfolio drop off the face of the Earth to 2004 levels...

But not bad considering it has been 10 years and 1 month since I started trading online... portfolio since Dec 2000 +1004%

I actually started investing in 1998 when I bought some TD INDEX funds with a $350 tax return after dumping every cent I had to come up with a 27% down payment on our home so I wouldn't have to pay the CMHC premium... laugh if you want, but 1997 saw some rough economic times..every cent mattered and I was quite nervous signing for a mortgage back then... maybe it was because I was unemployed at the time and only worked 6-8 months per year average in the 90's... plus it didn't help that everyone, EXCEPT my dad and my RE agent, Eden Hampson, who also happened to be my karate instructor, told us it would be a HUGE mistake buying real estate back then...

WHAT I LEARNT SO FAR:

-when learning about money...learn everything there is to know about money- that includes taxes, debt control, real estate, interest rates, insurance, and being frugal; not just stock and bond picks.. you'll never learn it all but you what you will find is they're all related to each other...

-when deciding to invest, I made it a hobby; people spend more time and effort with their hobbies than their families or their jobs. Take a guy whose hobby is rebuilding cars for example... he knows more about that car and has spent more time and money in doing so than any guy who does it for a living...

-money flows 2 ways: 'IN' and 'OUT'; no matter how much you think you can control the money coming 'IN', you're really only in control of the 'OUT'... Why do you think all those people who work all those overtime hours or extra jobs never really get out of debt..sure, they may temporarily ease some pain but when the overtime stops, there they are begging to be transferred to another money job...

- rule of 72... learn it, know it... live it... if I can get 10% return on my money, it will take 7.2 years to double; if I get 7.2%, it will take 10 years to double... 69 is a more accurate number but people tend to think you're talking about something other than compound interest for some reason...

-a 100% tax write-off does NOT mean "FREE"... plus to 'write' something off, you actually got to make some money...

-compound interest is your BEST employee- he works for you 365 days a year and never takes a break! ; BUT if you have debt, he will haunt you 24/7...

- Scotiabank is completely wrong: you REALLY have LESS than you think. Canadians as of 2010 spend $1.42 for every dollar they earn... and what you got left on your line of credit is NOT added to your NET WORTH...

-a tax return ISN'T 'bonus' money... nor is it "extra" spending money...

-never owe more than 2.5 times your annual GROSS INCOME for a home and have at least 10% down... IE. if you make $80K per year, your mortgage should not exceed $200K... when homes cost $400? Get a bigger down payment. SIMPLE.

-From David Chilton (Wealthy Barber): pay yourself first and save your way to prosperity...remember the 10% rule...

- from Robert Kiyosaki (Rich Dad Poor Dad): never buy your TOYS with the money you earn; BUY ASSETS; let your ASSETS buy your TOYS... but first you must learn what an asset is...

- from Eden Hampson (Re/Max): "people upgrade their homes for 2 reasons: size and location- make sure your home has both... if you have to upgrade your house because it's too small or for any other reason in the next couple of years no matter how much you think it has appreciated, the only person that really makes money is me, the Real Estate guy..."

-from Eden again: if you are planning to have a family, never count on the lower income earner's wages when deciding how much you can AFFORD on a home... being able to afford a home with one income saves so much grief later in life...

-from my dad: "there's no such thing as 'easy money'... if money fell out of the sky, you couldn't get easier than that could you? Well, you would still have a sore back at the end of the day picking it off the ground.."

-from my dad again: "you can make whatever you make with your job and do all the overtime you want; and I'll make $10 per hour in business- I'll have more money than you at the end of the year... it's not about what you make son..."

-anyone can pick stocks and every 3 of 4 will be winners whether you have a monkey throwing darts at the newspaper or research them like you're going after a Nobel Prize; when to buy & when to sell is the HARD part. And I'm not talking about timing here...

- timing the markets is IMPOSSIBLE regardless of what someone may think they know or what they tell you: if everyone knew a way to time the markets perfectly, either stocks would be worth nil or everyone would be rich...

-it really does take money to make more money... it takes a lot of money to make a little too... so don't think your measly $1000 is gonna make you a mil... SAVE. Do the rich get richer? Damn straight.

-know when to get out: if you have a flower garden, you pull your weeds and let your flowers bloom don't you?; so why do so many sell their winners and double up on their losers in the stock market??

-learn to talk about money.... openly and honestly... 99% of my parents' fights and arguments were over money; and they always had food in the fridge and a roof over our heads... when my first child was born I vowed to do the same without the money fights...

-from Peter Lynch (Beating the Street): when your cab driver gives you a stock tip, it's time to get out of the market... same holds true with pipefitters and welders: when they suddenly become stock market experts but have none to show for it, SELL everything... when they become the real estate gurus, it's time to move to Skatch...

- never let PRIDE or what you think what people may think of you get in the way of you making money... that goes the same for SAVING money... quit trying to impress others or get used to being broke.

-that being said, never let making money or your GREED get in the way of your health and well-being or spending quality time with your family.... money means nothing when you're lying on your deathbed; and, it's all FOR nothing without your family to share in your financial successes...

-after 10 years of doing this, and the more I do this, the more I realize I know nothing.... education is the best investment anybody will ever make...STUDY

HAPPY NEW YEAR!!

If I had Bill Gates' money...

It's funny how the people with no or little money know exactly what they would do if they were rich; we dream about it every day, so we should know, just in case we do happen to stumble on a lottery win or a grand inheritance.  But it never holds true the other way around:  you never see the rich dreaming about being poor...or even thinking about what if they lost all their money.  Big difference between those that "have" and those that "have not"... 

Even if you got caught up in the euphoria and success of the recent Alberta Oil Boom, made off like a bandit in the hysteria of the real estate boom, and think you have become one of the "haves" in the social echelon, this very notion will determine if you really have climbed the social ladder into the confines of the truly rich or you are just kidding yourself surrounding yourself with petty purchases in hopes of keeping up with the Jones'.  In fact, people like that worry about their finances every day; the Rich do not.

 With the recent Stock Market upheaval, do you really think Warren Buffett or Bill Gates, losing billions in equity of their holdings over the past year, are concerned with money, or lying awake in bed at nights thinking what they're going to do if they do not make their next month's payments?  I doubt it.  Only the people that have none worry about money.

The true Rich do not dream about having no money and in most cases, do not know what it is like to be poor.  And, they are so rich, they don't need money.  The reason is perhaps their wealth is not build on the foundations of credit borrowing or debt like the rest of us swimming among those of the "Middle-Class" or "working- poor"; which really is the same IMHO.  That is why the Rich can be broke but never poor.

Preparing for the Big Bounce, then the New Depression

Quite a pessimistic view of the next 10 -20 years but Dent was the most optimistic in the last 20 years... 

What's scary is he has predicted most of these bubble economies since the 80s...

The Plight of the Asian Male Actor.

Upon having a recent discussion with my brother-in-law, an aspiring actor in Calgary as one of his many hobbies, I have found he presents an interesting point when discussing the limited roles available for oriental males: they are typecast into roles of either the nerdy math geek or the chop-sockey hero or the evil Fu Man Chu villain; all of which never did get the girl in the end.  Sure, they get to kick some ass and save the world but none have yet to be cast as a lead making off into the sunset with Angelina Jolie.  In fact, there are few scenes in movies where Asian males are having an on-screen romance with someone of their own ethnic group! 

Arguments are that Hollywood typecasts Asian males in roles people are used to seeing Asian men in such as a waiter in a restaurant or a martial artist or a nerdy office clerk.  In real life though, is it irony that upon walking into any hospital in North America, most of the doctors and surgeons are comprised of Asian males; but, in Hollywood, Grey' Anatomy and ER, the top two most well-known hospital-themed television shows, there are no male Asian  doctors to be seen.  In the movie 21, based on the non-fiction novel Bringing Down the House, the main characters in the book, based upon the real-life MIT Blackjack Team were mostly Asian;  where in the film, only two were Asian in minor roles.  When is the last time anyone has saw a love scene involving Jackie Chan or John Cho or Chow Yun Fat or Masi Oka?  Its difficult enough to picture any of these guys in a role that doesn't involve beating people up or doing someone's taxes.

Granted, Hollywood has a problem with under-representing all minorities considering this day and age when minorities comprise of up to a third of the population in North America.  But, even Black actors have lead roles as doctors in Grey's Anatomy; and, there is much more variety in roles for African Americans than than the hip-hop pimp drug dealer; leadership from the likes of Morgan Freeman and Denzel Washington.  Even Asian women have better representation in Lucy Liu and Sandra Oh.  The Asian males that do succeed in the film industry are not even full Asian.  Case in point, Keanu Reeves, who looks racially ambiguous and easily passes off as whatever other race he is.

So what is it about the Asian male actor then?  Is the American market not ready for the Asian male lead? Is it Hollywood's fault?  Does Hollywood think western society is not ready for the Asian lead male?  Or is Hollywood waiting for the right guy to show up?

Jeff Adachi's documentary,  The Slanted Screen: Asian American Men in Film and Television, states a long history of Hollywood catering to America's xenophobia of Asian males as "Chinese men were villain-ized" and "racist images were often used to justify oppressive laws, such as the Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882 and incarceration of Japanese Americans in WWII."  Asian women has faired better due to the stereotypical image of the 'geisha' or submissive asian girl fantasy for dominant white males.  It is very hard for any of us to see Asian males playing the cowboy or the romantics they are still "outsiders" in Hollywood.  They have a long way to go in changing the image Hollywood has etched in western society's minds.  

My brother-in-law states it may have to do with our generation of Asian-born in North America have been so integrated and accepted into modern white society, we rarely see ourselves as not being part of the larger group much less seeing ourselves as Asian.  It's rare do we nod at other Asians we do not know walking by on the street or "support our boy" by going to every movie an Asian stars in, no matter how badly rated,  like our African-American/ Canadian counterparts often do.  Our generation doesn't feel a common purpose, a sense of solidarity due to past oppression because Asians have amalgamated so well into the system, into the professions, into business.  

I do agree with him, but, there's more to it than that or the Hollywood conspiracy of keeping Asian males off the radar because its just good business. 

I have found that Asians complain about the lack of representation in media but they rarely step forward and put up the resources, the time, or the money the film industry needs to change the image of the Asian male actor.  Asians don't invest in film-making or art schools; they invest in computers companies or oil businesses; Asians go to school to be doctors or lawyers or accountants, not actors or artists or film-makers.  They opt with the less risky career choices; the choice that makes lots of money: a practicality taught to us since we were little by our Chinese immigrated parents.  Only the select few rebellious types going against the wishes of our traditional parents do actually take the risk and venture out and become the actor or artist or the guy behind the camera.  

As a former artist who chose the easier road of job stability and a weekly pay cheque,  I should know. 

'tis the season for Apple Rumors...

Christmas is a wonderful time of year.  It gives us a chance to break away from the doom and gloom media coverage of the current global economic crisis and shut out the ongoing lies our Prime Minister has force-fed us with in the last month scrambling to save his ass from the inevitable no-confidence vote in the House of Commons.

It is also a time to get excited for what the new year will bring: especially what Apple has in store for its final appearance at Macworld.  It is no revelation that everyone loves Apple rumors; why should a simple recession hamper in our annual Christmas rituals?  In fact there are probably more blogs and websites dedicated to Apple rumors than there are rumors.  So far on the net this year,  some old reoccurring themes and some new ones...

Snow Leopard. A new OS X version Phil Sshiller is expected to showcase this year for his keynote speech.  It's supposed to included Grand Central and OpenCL.  This will increase graphics performance especially in new Macs with Nvidia chipsets; there is rumor that Apple will introduce a new 3D OS X user interface in Snow Leopard giving way to more real estate on screen that ever before.

New iMacs and Mac Mini's are expected to be unveiled with new Nvidia video chipsets.  Apple has already recently switched over to those video chipsets in their Macbook, Macbook Pro, and Macbook Air models.

A new Apple Netbook was rumored to be released but is highly doubtful.  This old ongoing rumor is supposedly be something along the lines between a iPhone and a Macbook Air, with touchscreen and 3G network capabilities. Netbooks' increasing popularity is something that Apple surely cannot ignore as desktops sales for all computer manufacturers have begun to take a sharp downturn.  A new Apple Netbook still won't be cheap, but, it is something people will buy regardless of the current economic crisis; and, Apple has opportunity to redefine the Netbook as it did the 'smartphone'. 

The iPhone and iPod Touch will get a boost in memory: 32GB iPhones and 64GB iPod Touches. A iPhone launch in China is also expected for 2009.

A iPhone Nano is rumored but also doubtful.  But, by targeting the cheaper pay-as-you-go market, a smaller and cheaper iPhone having the 'candy-bar' shape and engineered like that of the iPod Shuffle, may not be that far-fetched.  There would be more likely chance of a 4Gb iPhone will be released for its Wal-Mart customers for $99 and a smaller contract.

Rumor has it that Apple may be working on a new search engine.  Seems very unlikely with the market totally dominated by heavyweights Google, Yahoo!, and Microsoft, but consider what the competition it faced in the cellular phone market two years prior when iPhone rumors were floating about the internet.  Now would be a great time to cut a deal with Yahoo! as it finds ways to gain back its market share from Google; also, Apple may not be pleased with Google as of late for releasing more iPhone competition in Android.

Blu-Ray burners may be an option in the new 2009 iMacs and Macbook lines. Perhaps an external Blu-Ray drive by a third-party developer is more likely.  New Apple products will probably go the way of non- moving parts, introducing flash drives and media to its line-up instead. 

A EVDO iPhone for Verizon may be coming in 2009.  Adobe releasing flash software for iPhones is more likely to happen.

An Apple branded HDTV set with built in AppleTV.  Considering AppleTV's lack of success..it's worth a try.  At least they should bundle the AppleTV units with HDTVs made by other manufacturers.

DRM-free music on iTunes entire library.  Removing copy protection from its iTunes library would keep Apple ahead of its competitors who have already begun selling DRM-free downloads for quite awhile.

An Apple home video gaming console. Perhaps to revive the flailing AppleTV or take advantage of Apple's App Store capabilities and the iPod Touch and iPhone's success as gaming machines. But, remember the "Pippin"?  Does Apple really want to go there again?

And, lastly, yeah, this one again.. The Beatles' entire catalog on iTunes.  Along with it a special edition Beatles iPod launch.  And, an iTunes subscription service.

 

2009 Lookahead: Not a lot of Promise...

 Again is our precious oil industry is being hit by falling oil prices, soaring costs, and uncertainty in world markets.  Big Oil is putting on the brakes to strengthen their balance sheets and hang onto any cash to weather the economic crisis smothering the rest of the world presently.   

In Alberta, oil is king:  Its overall economic health is dependent on oil.  All Albertans' livelihoods, like it or not, whether you are in retail sales, accounting, home-building, or business, is inherently tied to the oil economy in some way.  And, with a barrel of oil below $34 US, the future doesn't look all that rosy lately. 

By observing what is happening on the jobs front in Oilsands projects construction for the next year or two, most people who live and work in Alberta can pretty much predict how their own year is going to be like financially.

Here are some of the major work being deferred or cancelled for Alberta Oilsands already announced as of Dec.18/ 2008:

Total Canada has just recently withdrew its application for its Northern Lights Project.

Petro-Canada cut its spending budget by a third even after deferring its $25 billion Fort Hills 

Downstream Upgrader Project indefinitely last month; its upstream Mine is under complete review and decision deferred for the latter haf of 2009.

Encana Corp. is cutting its 2009 spending by a quarter.

Suncor Energy is delaying its $20 billion Voyageur expansion.

Nexen/ Opti Canada has deferred its plans to twin its Long Lake Project.

BA Energy has cancelled its Heartland Upgrader Project.

North West Upgrader's plans for its Redwater Plant is on hold.

StatoilHydro's $12.6 billion Upgrader is cancelled.

CNRL has slashed its budget for 2009 in half for its phase 2 expansion of its Horizon Project.

Royal Dutch Shell has delayed its expansion plans for its Athabasca Oil Sands Project.

Husky Energy has cut its budget for 2009 by 28%.

On the brighter side, what will keep us employed in Alberta until we can ride this nasty crisis out:

Imperial Oil's Kearl Lake Mine on track for construction start in 2010.

Shell Scotford's Upgrader 2 Phase 1 expansion is underway and intending to ramp up for 2009.

Epcor/ TransAlta Keephills 3 power project construction is already underway; completion expected by Q1 2011.

Maintenance and Turnarounds for 2009 and 2010 are predicted to be big shutdown years as new projects recently commissioned are coming online.

Blame Walmart for Stevie J's No-show @ Macworld?

Apple fans world-wide are up in arms reacting to Apple pulling out of Macworld ; an example seen here, by Tonya Engst of TidBits, another Mac Blogsite...

Emotionally it is saddening as I will indeed miss the anticipation of the annual ritual of what Apple will release every January since 1985.  But, in retrospect, it may be a good thing as Apple products' releases won't be rushed just for the annual trade show immediately after the frenzy of the Christmas buying season. 

And, though CNBC's Jim Goldman has hinted why Steve Jobs is not speaking at Apple's final Macworld appearance is "more about politics than his pancreas".  I personally think it has more to do with Walmart than IDG/ Apple relations.  Walmart stores are slated to start selling iPhones after Christmas.  And, because of the sheer size of Walmart and its potential to boost iPhones sales despite a weak retail sector in an economic downturn,  Apple, in keeping a good a vendor rapport with the retail giant, may demand Steve Jobs to do an iPhone launch event with Walmart instead of doing his usual Macworld keynote.  This of course is speculation on my part though.  

Apple doing an CES event in Las Vegas this year and stealing the show away from every other competing electronic company this year would also appease most Apple fanboys' tastebuds.  A Steve Jobs "one more thing" appearance at CES would indeed knock the wind out of the likes of Sony, Microsoft,  and Nintendo upon a coinciding launch of a new Apple video gaming console.  Indeed, it would make things a lot more interesting than the usual 'oh, we tweaked the Mini  and revamped the AppleTV again' keynote in San Francisco.

'tis the season for Hoin' gadgets..

TripleHead2Go's  Digital Edition Graphics eXpansion module.. an external video card capable of hooking up 3 monitors..  $356.00 at MacMall online..

Now that's what I'm talking about baby.....  handy little gadget especially if you need dual monitors off a Macbook pro or iMac all in one where it only comes with one mini DVi out slot... this picture here is unnecessary as the Mac pro has options for 4 internal PCI video cards (8 monitors)...

Stevie J won't be giving the Keynote..Let the Rumors Fly...

Apple has announced today that Steve Jobs will not deliver the keynote speech at Macworld next month.  He has done so for the last 11 years.

Rumors have it that there is concern for Steve Jobs' health as he appear gaunt and thin at the last product announcement.  Also, there is speculation Apple has no 'knock ya on your ass' product announcements this year like the iPhone, etc.  

Apple states Macworld is an trade show event which the company will not be participating in after next month as it is a "minor" way it reaches its customers now.  

Weakened consumer spending and a global economy in disarray is more concern for Apple investors as many financial analysts have downgraded Apple, despite it has surprised the Street quarter over quarter, over expectations of the company to face tougher economic environment in the future.

Apple shares dropped $2.49 in after hours trading after the announcement.  

I feel that Apple, due to its success over the last 10 years, is finding it increasingly difficult to produce the 'Wow' factor Apple fans have come to expect in January immediately after a busy Christmas season.  Also, it may be too difficult to top its current lineup of products in time for the Macworld keynote; hence, by opting out of Macworld, the company can release its products within its own timeframe without the pressure of having to 'wow' those at Macworld.