Yeah, typical fucking all yap and no flap bullshit. It's the end of AAPL as we know it AGAIN; it has topped and could hit $00.00 by earnings call on Oct 25th... with all the negativity on AAPL lately, it's hard not to get sucked in; I know that feeling well. Who hasn't shit their pants long AAPL through a correction?.. Look at all the fuck you we're all dead headlines.. from the bearish doji stars to head and shoulders formations to the 50day MA breakdowns to "Mapplegate" to Foxconn workers striking to Samsung trials to Doug Fucking Kass beaking off... the peer pressure is sometimes overwhelming.
And can there be a more bearish chart? Just look at that nasty ass chart with that bitch of a candle that broke through the 50 Day Moving Average and the head and shoulders neckline like a flaming knife through butter in an elevator without cables flying down a shaft... and we all know the 50DayMA is THE dividing line between a technically healthy stock and one ready for the fucking shitter...and the Head and Shoulders pattern is the end-all be-all most reliable and most often seen uptrend reversal technical indicators... Fuck me, how about I just blow my brains out right the fuck now???
Now before you degenerate OTB guys start making some asshatish decisions, let's analyze this fucking shit further...
Fundamentally, there's still no better stock than AAPL. They have stupid as fuck amounts of cash, they make stupid as fuck amounts of cash and will continue to make stupid as fuck amounts of cash despite how much you dicksuckers need to justify that Samsung with the retardo big screen purchase you just bought... Andy Zaky describes AAPL's future best and slams asshat CNBC chronic AAPL bear Doug Kass while he's at it..
Technically, I'm no technical analysis guy.. if you want to see some Grey's Anatomy-style surgery-like precision in Technical Analysis mastery at its finest, I highly recommend you check out @ChessNwine or @RaginCajun's blogs..
What I do know about technical analysis, is its most basic premise is HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF in definable patterns and trends that can be seen in charts...
So, looking at AAPL's history with the 50 DMA, we see it has broken through the 50 Day 19 times in the last 2 years.
But of all the times it has broken through the 50DMA, only 4 times since the 2009 lows has AAPL's share price ever fell more than 10% more from its 50Day breach price...
Now if history were to repeat itself as per technical analysis and an average 8% drop were to ensue from its current 50DMA price it printed on Friday's close, an absolute bottom max drop of $50 or to the $602.00 could be seen from its current price. So all you asshats calling for $300 by next week can go fuck your hat...
As far as the head and shoulders bullshit is concerned, we can see from the following long term chart, AAPL tends to punch those technical indicators of a top in the fucking face then spits on them... just as it does with stochastic divergences and other fucktarded lagging indicators...
For myself, I have never been able to take profits on AAPL shares with any success, nor have I ever made money shorting AAPL...WHY?
Answer: I can never call the top... every time I feel I've got the technicals down pat or let the CNBC dicksuckers get the best of me, I end up losing my shares only to watch AAPL go on a cocaine gorilla run for the ages... In fact, there's only one person I can think of who has done it with any success, implied or imaginary; a certain TF fellow on Stocktwits, shorted the entire recent 140 handle tit-rip to all-time highs via drawing a few simple trendlines and trips to the beach...
Since the desolate days of 2008/ 2009 lows, AAPL has been by far the easiest stock to buy on dips and hold. Every single pullback in share price has been the buying opportunity of a lifetime to add more shares... And, I find I am a much better dip buyer when it comes to AAPL than I am as a breakout buyer...
Don't get me wrong, some of these fucking pullbacks have been difficult to sit through, and they feel like clawhammers to the face and chest when they happen, and can last seemingly forever.. Fuck, the $424.88 to $361.77 pullback of 2011 (-14.85%), and the $641.25 to $519.95 pullback of earlier this year (-19.92%) both took an egregious 6 weeks to complete!
But, both also were subsequently followed up by runaway cocaine trains to the upside; from $361.77 to $641.25 (+77.25%) and from $519.95 to $705.07 (+35.60%)!
So is it time to buy now??
What I have found successful using technicals is when AAPL share price hits the bottom Bollinger Band, the CCI and RSI (9) indicates oversold levels at the same time.. so on the following chart:
Answer: No.
Not yet, according to my rules.
I'd like to see all 3 indicators trigger 'oversold' before adding to my existing longs. So near $611-$640 range, all 3 should trigger oversold but also those numbers show a bounce off the 61.8% Fibbonacci Retracement from the July lows and 50% from the May lows.. In addition, AAPL's PE would be below 15 using last Q's TTM numbers.... And anything in the 13-14 PE range, it seems to trigger all the HFT machines and Fund Guys and MM's alarms to buy AAPL with retarded conviction..so I would expect a violent bounce if AAPL gets to these levels...
In all honesty, I have no fucking idea where the market is going nor do I know where AAPL share price is going... if I did, you think I'd be here spending stupid as fuck amounts of time looking at charts while entertaining the likes of you fuckfaces?? If it were that easy to predict the future, I'd be fixing flux capacitors or reading tea leaves and tarot cards in some KGB bathhouse...
In the meantime I'm satisfied knowing what I'll do if AAPL decides knifes down lower....But if it heads back to heaven and then some, I'll be just as happy selling covered calls for stupid as fuck amounts of cash while I await another dip buying opportunity...
Disclaimer: Stupid as fuck long AAPL; hedged with covered calls.
1 comment:
good read. i agree. love the cussing. RSI and Lower bollingerband have been hit to oversold territory.
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