Ready to Roll the Dice on AAPL?
Happy iPhone 5 day Gentlemen.
It's all about AAPL today... you might as well shut down your twitter stream and news feed unless you are attempting to trade AAPL today like some degenerate OTB guy at the Fitz.. Going rumour is even the Clam will be basing his POMO decision on today's product announcement...
So what to do today?
The two dominant investment strategies out there today are fundamental analysis and technical analysis.
Fundamental Analysis is a method to determine the intrinsic value of a stock by looking at financial data and facts directly related to the company per se, such as earnings, sales, balance sheets, cash flow, income statements, and dividends. There are more than enough websites and information on the Internets that go into all that shit; you don't need me to regurgitate all that for you. What we do know is AAPL has stupid as fuck amounts of money and makes stupid as fuck amounts of money. And, regardless of what you think of the iPhone 5, AAPL will make stupid as fuck amounts of money on it. There you have it.. fundamentals.
Technical Analysis is a method of predicting future stock price movements via the use of charts showing past price and volume performance, patterns, and trends. Most technical traders use a series of indicators, oscillators, and signals to determine if the market is pricing that particular stock in question correctly at the time; and because of technical analysis' primary belief that markets are efficient, everything you need to know about the stock is already reflected in its price and price action. So looking at AAPL technically, this is how its price reacts to product announcements in the past:
Good luck with that fuckface.
Here's what we do know... technical analysis is based on one sole premise: HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF. So looking back, the iPod, iPad, iPhone 3G, and iPhone 4S have ALL been some of the greatest disappointments in AAPL's history on the announcement day and in the following days of its announcement. Well, we all know how those all worked out for Apple and its investors.
There is a third, much less known, but far more useful investment strategy: Psychological analysis. Basically it is the study how humans respond to certain market events. You probably heard the cliche, "It's not the news that counts, but how the market reacts to the news"... This is what I'm talking about here. What I like about it is human psychology never changes: investors always feel fear and panic when shit is knifing down, and investors are rich and fucking geniuses when shit goes up.
And when it comes to AAPL, it is one of the most emotional investments I've ever run into, with exception to real estate. Like real estate, I have found, you're either a rabid Apple fanboy sporting wood on every uptick or a lowlife basher vying to get into AAPL at lower price or got a serious hate on for AAPL just to justify your asshat decision on a Sony Xperia purchase...
An interesting post @Redman59 wrote yesterday, looking at how emotional Apple investors get when someone, anyone in fact, writes anything negative about Apple. I have noticed a lot of writers and traders will do so just to mock Apple fanboys. If you looked at the AAPL steam on Stocktwits, you would have noticed how @traderflorida shorted AAPL during an entire $100 run up on AAPL share price. Whether or not he made money, only he knows, but if you read his tweets and watch his video clips, I personally think he does this intentionally, like some insecure beta male schoolboy desperately seeking attention and fame would, just to fuck with AAPL longs knowing full well how rabidly bent out of shape they can get when you bash their precious AAPL.
Anyways, getting back on topic, what do we know on a psychological analysis standpoint? The iPhone 5 was the last product Steve Jobs had ever worked on before he passed away. And there are literally millions upon milions of people, fanboy or not, that want and will buy the iPhone 5 right the fuck now and NOT ONE of of these people has EVER seen it yet. Think about that for a moment.
Place your bets, addicts.
Good Morning and good luck in all your trades.
Disclaimer: I am stupid as fuck long AAPL.